Betting on Football is big business for the Bookmakers. It is also where a lot of money can be made if the punter is sensible and bets with his head and not his/her heart!
Automatically, we all think we can predict the result of five or six games of Football, put them together in an accumulator, bet and walk away with a fortune! Remember if you back five 1/4 shots then the odds are telling you that one of those five will not win. If those are the true value odds for those games. (see my page on value to understand what i mean by this).
We are searching for an edge, somewhere where the odds are not quite right. This will be where a team has injuries/suspensions or trends tell you that another result is more likely.
I have a friend who makes his living betting on Football and he is a master of spoting a trend, backing it until it loses. Last season he was backing Ronaldo to score in a game at odds of around 4/1. After a while the bookies cottoned on and reduced the odds but he followed that trend for the rest of the season. We all know that Ronaldo scored a hatfull and was instrumental in ensuring another title win for Man Utd! This season 2008/2009 he started backing Man Utd at less than 2.5 goals per game around Christmas time(2.5 being the total goals in the game. 3 goals ie,2-1 was a loser). Utd went on a 11 game streak winning most 1-0. He stopped when Utd started to hit top form.
My friend is a Man Utd supporter and this leads me onto a point that i want to make. If you are a supporter of a team or teams then you are probably an expert on how your team is likely to perform. However, many people will not bet on their own supported team, especially to lose, as it doesn't 'sit right'. But, if you know that your team performs badly against another then you have the edge that makes it worth a bet! Such in depth knowledge about something gives you an edge that can be put to profit! Sometimes betting needs to be cold and calculating!
The win double:
If you bet two teams in a win double at odds of 1/2 and they win your payout is 2&1/4. Or to put it another way for a £100 stake your profit is £125 and your stake returned. if you backed these teams individually then you would have to stake £200 (£100 for each bet) and your profit would be a total of £100 but you have risked twice as much as the double for a worse result. Now if these two games in your double take part at different times you could hope that your second team scores first and then on a betting exchange you could use a bit of your expected profit to guarantee a fixed profit and ensure that your stake is returned if the bet goes wrong.
This is Hedging our bets and creating an Arbitrage situation.
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