Arbitrage - A bet that cannot lose !
An arbitrage bet is a bet that cannot lose!
It is a situation where you can back all outcomes of a particular event and make a profit. When a bookmaker lays odds on an event the percentage total of all odds laid exceeds 100%. This is usually around 106% - 120%. This is known as the over round and the percentage over 100% is the bookmakers profit on that event.
Sometimes, bookmakers will see the outcome of an event differently and by placing bets with a number of bookies you can make a profit whatever the outcome. The total percentage of your book would need to be less than 100% for this to be a bet.
See the percentage table on this website to find out what percentage of the book each odds are.
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We can also make an no lose bet by backing and laying if we have an account with a betting exchange such as Betfair. We can do this because odds are often changing before or during an event.
Say we back Man Utd at odds of 1/2 to win. If Man Utd score first the odds might change to 1/4 so we can lay this price either to make a profit if Man utd win or we may lay Man Utd so that we win whatever the result. Our total winnings would be smaller but we make a profit whatever happens. so if we backed £100 on Man Utd to win at 1/2 our potential profit is £50. When Utd score we can lay the win bet by taking a bet of £100 to win £25 at odds of 1/4 on the betting exchange. The liability for that bet is £25. Our profit if Utd win is £25 and we get our money back if Utd lose. However, if we lay Utd to win £30 by taking a bet of £120 at odds of 1/4 then we win £20 if Utd win and £20 if Utd lose. Things are easier to understand if you go onto Betfair and take the demo.
We can use this to manufacture many arbitrage situations. We can back antepost and lay after the odds shorten. We can back a horse and lay it when the odds come in. On close events we can find that we can back with a particular bookmaker and lay the odds on Betfair. Or in events with only two outcomes
sometimes we can back with different bookmakers to make a profit because they have taken a different opinion on the outcome!
See the SSB Blog for any ideas i might have for arbitrage bets.
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